Useful Information

Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of
a Foodborne Illness Outbreak

Sarah M. Bartsch, MPH1, Lindsey Asti, MPH1, Sindiso Nyathi, BA1,
Marie L. Spiker, MSPH, RD1, and Bruce Y. Lee, MD, MBA1

Abstract

Objectives:  Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances.

Methods:  We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n . 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases.

Results:  We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant’s annual marketing costs and 0.3% to101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue.  Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly).

Conclusions:  The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research forinfection-control measures in restaurant settings.

Keywords:  cost, economic burden, foodborne, outbreaks, restaurant

  • Section 1

    Restaurants in the United States comprise a multibillion-dollar industry ($780 billion in 2016, composing 4% of the gross domestic product). The National Restaurant Association estimated that in 2016, 47%  of every dollar spent on food was spent in a restaurant, and in 2015, the average American ate out approximately 5 times per week.1,2  From 1998 through 2013, restaurants played a role in 9788 (56% ) of the 17 445 foodborne illness outbreak events reported; this number translates to approximately 620 restaurant-associated outbreaks and 3000 to 11 500 illnesses annually.3  A total of 742 foodborne illness outbreaks with a single location of food preparation occurred in 2014, 485 (65% ) of which were linked to restaurants.4  Although restaurant-associated foodborne illness outbreaks periodically appear in the news media,5  individual restaurants might not always be aware of how much they could cost. We posited that a better understanding of the economic burden of a foodborne illness outbreak (in the event that one occurs) could help restaurants determine how much they could potentially invest in outbreak prevention and control; however, the economic value (eg, cost benefit, cost effectiveness) of these interventions would depend on the risk occurrence.

     

  • Section 2